Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3850.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3650.
- Timeline:1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3850.
The GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a strong bull run this month, and is now hovering at its highest level since October 2021. It has jumped sharply from the year-to-date low of 1.2100, and the trend may continue this week.
UK GDP Data Ahead
The GBP/USD exchange rate continued its strong rally this month as the US dollar index plunged. The index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, dropped to a low of $97.25, its lowest swing since February 2022. It has plunged by nearly 12% from its highest point this year.
The next key catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate will be the upcoming UK GDP data. Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 1.3% in the first quarter, following a 1.5% growth rate in the previous quarter.
The UK will then publish the latest mortgage approvals and lending data, providing further information about the housing sector. Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England (BoE) will talk and provide more information on the next rate cuts.
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The other top economic data to watch will come out on Tuesday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest JOLTS job vacancy numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the economy had 7.45 million vacancies in May, from 7.39 million in April.
The GBP/USD exchange rate will also react to the US ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMI data. Economists expect these numbers to show that the sector continued to contract in June as companies reacted to Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The most important data will be released on Thursday, when the US publishes the latest nonfarm payroll numbers.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a strong bull run in the past few weeks. It has moved to the upper side of the ascending channel and the key support level at 1.3430, the upper side of the cup-and-handle pattern.
The pair has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards, a sign that it is gaining momentum.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance at 1.3900. The other alternative is where it drops to the lower side of the channel at 1.3430.
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