The USD/TRY continues to produce a slow crawling upwards movement and is above the 39.10000 in an almost serene manner in early trading this morning.
Since the bedlam and momentary chaos seen in the middle of March when political turmoil hit Turkey via a government crackdown on opposition, the USD/TRY has returned to a known steady trading pattern. As of this writing the USD/TRY is near the 39.10600 vicinity and has shown an ability since late last week to sustain the 39.00000 level.
Yes, early volatility on Monday of this week did see the USD/TRY move lower and depths below 39.00000 were seen, but since late Tuesday the 39.00000 ratio and higher has shown that financial institutions appear ready to accept this rise. The USD/TRY saw violent trading in the middle of March as financial institutions created whipsaw price action, but by the 20th of March it must be admitted that steady trading had returned.
USD/TRY Beyond 38.00000 and Above 39.00000 Trend
After the initial chaos on the 18th of March and the spikes higher which saw the 36.60000 vicinity soar to almost 39.0000 and then return to the 37.80000 ratios, the USD/TRY has been what can be called calm. Experienced traders in financial institutions showed that they were capable of take a deep breath and returning the currency pair back to acceptable equilibrium.
What is interesting about the value of the USD/TRY as of this morning is that it is now testing the highs produced on the 18th of March. The upwards momentum from the 19th of March until today has been incrementally polite and without too many spikes. Nevertheless the USD/TRY is now traversing at highs seen during the height of the political escalation. This doesn’t mean financial institutions are suddenly more nervous, but does show they continue to show an underlying awareness to fiscal concerns that remain important in Turkey.
Speculating and Risk Management for the USD/TRY
The upwards momentum in the USD/TRY remains evident. But the crawl higher is slow and this means day traders trying to bet on upside need deep pockets, patience and a bit of luck when trying to time the Forex market.
- Movements lower in the USD/TRY still occur and the sudden dives can prove painful for those on the wrong side of the trade using too much leverage.
- It appears the 39.10000 may remain sustained, but it also may attract attempts to occasionally try and sell the USD/TRY too.
- Looking for upside in the USD/TRY is an attractive wager and has been for a long-time, but holding the currency pair overnight is not easy and can be costly.
- Buying the USD/TRY after lower moves have happened and seeking reversals higher is a conservative approach for speculators looking for cautious moves upward.
Turkish Lira Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 39.11500
Current Support: 39.10400
High Target: 39.13000
Low Target: 39.10000
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best Turkish brokers to choose from.