USD/RUB traders have kept calm in the midst of louder rhetoric coming from President Donald Trump, and a perceived escalation in the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine in recent days.
The USD/RUB is trading near the 79.7300 juncture as of this writing. In early results this morning the USD/RUB did demonstrate a high around 80.5000, which approached a vicinity seen last Wednesday – but the currency pair actually remains under upper ratios produced early last week. The ability of the USD/RUB to remain stable to bearish the past handful of days is an indication financial institutions have not been terribly affected by heightened rhetoric regarding an inability to negotiate an end to the Russia – Ukraine war yet.
The USD/RUB has been able to stay steadily below the 80.0000 ratio since late last Wednesday. This morning’s buying action and outlier with USD/RUB near-term movement may show some signs of nervousness creeping in, but resistance near the 80.5000 ratio did appear to prove durable. The question is what will happen near-term if President Trump continues to speak with a tougher rhetoric towards Russia and actually introduce more sanctions.
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War and Negotiations Remain for Traders
Recent reports from Ukraine a few days ago said there were large scale missile attacks from Russia. The U.S White House reacted negatively towards this confirmed news of increased military action. However, in the midst of a potentially tougher stance from the U.S against Russia, the USD/RUB has not reacted with a spike higher, in fact the currency pair remains below last week’s highs and could attract some to the notion the bearish trend remains intact.
Short and near-term day traders wagering on the USD/RUB need to be extremely careful and have risk management working. For traders skeptical of a suddenly optimistic development regarding Russia and the Ukraine, perhaps considering buying the USD/RUB near perceived support levels and looking for slight reversals higher is an appealing wager. Financial institutions appear comfortable and may however believe in a more positive outlook regarding the war over the mid-term.
Outlook is a Question of Faith in the USD/RUB
The USD/RUB will likely prove difficult to trade in the near-term for speculators. Long-term positions may prove to have the best value, but the outlook for the currency pair remains under rather stormy shadows for speculators who are not well funded.
- There is may be a tendency to believe that a political solution will be found over the coming weeks and months, which may lead to a steady USD/RUB or lower movement.
- But if a tough stance continues to be demonstrated with aggressive military actions as a way to garner an advantage by Russia over the coming days and weeks, the USD/RUB could see a climb higher develop, this depending on the level of rhetoric and measures coming from the U.S White House and other important nations who want to see a resolution.
USD/RUB Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 79.9900
Current Support: 79.5500
High Target: 80.7000
Low Target: 79.3900
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