- It was a pretty quiet trading session on Thursday which is kind of interesting in and of itself as we are starting to see markets really take off in a risk appetite standpoint.
- This is due to the United States and United Kingdom signing the first trade deal and the fact that the United States and China are meeting over the weekend.
- You would think that would really start to send the Mexican peso higher in value, dropping this pair.
But ironically enough, this has actually been very pro US dollar in multiple other currencies. So maybe there's a little bit of a push and a pull here at the moment. But what I do find interesting is that we have been sideways for about three weeks now, right above the 19.6 Mexican pesos level. But we also have the 200 day EMA above offering significant resistance.
Compression Will Break Someday…
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So, with that being said, I think you've got a situation where the market is just kind of compressed and it really doesn't know what to do. The nice thing about this though is that if and when we break out of this range, and I'm sure we will, that gives you directionality to the pair. If we rise, then I would anticipate that the dollar would try to get to the 20 pesos level again.
If we break down, the market could very well drop down to the 19 Mexican pesos level given enough time. We have definitely tested a major resistance level recently in the form of a zone between 20 Mexican pesos and 21 Mexican pesos. And when looked at from a longer term standpoint, it is an area where you would expect the sellers to come in. If we get a more normalization type of move towards trade, this could help Mexico. That being said, if the US slips into a massive reception, that can actually hurt Mexico as most of its good end up in the United States before it's all said and done. There is a lot of noisy choppiness here, but I do think this is a pair that you need to watch because we may see a big move in one direction or the other.
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