- We've seen the US dollar initially try to rally against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Wednesday but has seen a little bit of a pushback.
- And we dropped pretty precipitously. However, later in the trading session, we saw a bit of a bounce.
- All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility and choppiness in this area.
And it's worth noting that the market will be dealing with the FOMC meeting, the minutes, the statement, everything. So, I think you have to understand that volatility will be the norm over the next couple of days, not the exception.
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That being said, if we can rise from here and break above the 146 yen level, I do think that the 50 day EMA offers a little bit of dynamic resistance, but longer term, capturing that and going higher would be an excellent second chance to take advantage of what could be a massive double bottom. If we continue to fall from here and clear the 140 yen level, that would be very ugly for the US dollar. And at that point in time, we might be looking at a massive breakdown due to the fact that the 140 yen level is essentially a triple bottom.
At that point, I'd be looking for 137 yen, followed by about 130 yen. A lot of things are about to happen. We just don't know which direction yet. This is a major point of inflection, and therefore you need to be very cautious about getting too aggressive. I do favor the upside in the short term though, but we'll just have to see. A lot of this is going to come down to the reaction after the Fed press conference. It's not just the statement. It is the press conference that will probably get this thing moving.
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