- The silver market initially rallied during the trading session on Friday, testing the crucial $33 level. Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen this market go back and forth between the $34 level above, and the $32 level below.
- This makes the $33 level essentially “fair value” at the moment.
- It’s also worth noting that the 50 Day EMA is hanging around the same area, so I think this leads to a very sideways market in the short term, and I do think that we have a scenario where a lot of back and forth probably continues to be the case.
This does make quite a bit of sense, due to the fact that the market has seen a lot of volatility over the last couple of months. Furthermore, we also have the negative correlation between the United States dollar and silver over the longer term, and as we have seen silver skyrocket recently, a lot of this coincided quite nicely with the US dollar selling off. That being said, silver is not just a precious metal, it is also an industrial metal as well.
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Looking Forward
Looking forward, there’s a lot of different things that you can think about when it comes to this, not the least of which will be the fact that a lot of traders are going to be trying to sort out where the economy is going. The overall economy looks as if it is slowing down, and if that’s going to be the case you have to worry about the potential industrial demand for silver. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it needs the fall apart, just that we may have some issues to watch over the next couple of days. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is still going to continue to be volatile, but quite frankly that’s nothing new when it comes to silver, as it is overall one of the more volatile markets that you can trade. If we break out of this rectangle, then the “measured move” is for a $2 move. If we stay within this rectangle, then it remains a back and forth short-term trading type of environment.
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