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Nasdaq Forecast: Jumps on Trade Deal Hopes

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • The Nasdaq 100 has skyrocketed for well over 3%, almost 4 % as I record this due to the trade negotiations between the United States and China producing some results over the weekend.
  • And in fact, a lot of the tariffs are being torn down and that helps the idea of risk appetite picking up from here.

All things being equal though, the 21,000 level offers a significant amount of resistance and there is still a lot of work to do. So, while I do think that the NASDAQ 100 becomes much more bullish over the longer term, we are getting to the point where it's getting a little exhausting. It'll be interesting to see when we look at the commitment of traders report for the NQ contract next week as to how many actual massive money managers jumped in on this news because the institutions really aren't participating.

Nasdaq Today 13/05: Jumps on Trade Deal Hopes (graph)

This is mainly retail driven. Now there is an argument to be made that the markets are a lot different than they once were and retail has much more influence. By volume, they don't, but by influence they may. So that is somewhat of a developing story.

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You Cannot Short this Market

Regardless, you really can't short this market. There's no reason to think that would be the viable option. I do think a pullback makes a certain amount of sense, but that pullback more likely than not will find some type of a reason to get bought into. And then at that point, we may continue towards the highs again. It was a very vicious pullback, but that's just how the US stock market works.

We get a vicious pullback, we shoot straight up in the air, we get a vicious pullback, and we do it again. So, at this point in time, I think the NASDAQ 100 probably breaks all-time highs before it's all said and done, but that doesn't mean it won't be noisy along the way.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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