Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3430.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3430.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3700.
The GBP/USD exchang rate surged to the highest level since February 2022 as signs showed that the British economy was doing better than expected and that inflation will start coming down. It was trading at 1.3592, up by 12% from the lowest level this year.
Top Forex Brokers
UK economic growth and US consumer confidence data ahead
The GBP/USD pair rose after a series of economic numbers showed that the UK was doing fairly better than expected.
Data released on Friday showed that British retail sales rose by 1.2% in April, significantly overshooting estimates as warm weather pushed people to spend more. This increase was much higher than the median estimate of 0.2%.
The report also showed that sales in food stores jumped by 3.9% as the UK went through the warmiest April since 1910. Another recent report showed that the economy expanded at a faster pace than what analysts were expecting.
It greew by 0.7% in the quarter, higher than the expected 0.6%. This growth was mostly because of the dominant services sector. Further, while the recent inflation report came higher than expected, there are signs that it will start falling as energy prices retreat.
The GBP/USD pair also rose as the US dollar index continued its strong sell-off. The US dollar index plunged below $98 for the first time in weeks as concerns about the economy continues.
Looking ahead, there will be some key catalysts for the pair in the coming days. The US will publish the latest consumer confidence data on Tuesday, followed by the release of the FOMC minutes of the last meeting.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the latest GDP report on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditure on Friday.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. It rose to a multi-year high of 1.3592 on Monday, a trend that may continue since it has completed the cup-and-handle pattern already.
The pair is approaching the ultimate resistance point of the Murrey Math Lines at 1.3670. It is also being supported by the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Also, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen, a sign that the pair is gaining momentum.
Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key psychological point at 1.3650.
Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out.