Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3435.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3150.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3150.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3435.
The GBP/USD exchange rate retreated slightly ahead of the upcoming economic data from the United States and the UK. It dropped to 1.3265 on Thursday morning, down from this week’s high of 1.3360.
UK and US economic data ahead
The GBP/USD pair retreated as the market waited for the latest UK GDP data. Economists expect the report to show that the economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter after expanding by 0.1% in Q4 of last year. The annualized GDP is expected to be 1.2%, lower than the fourth quarter’s 1.5%.
The other top economic data in that report will be the March trade report, manufacturing, and industrial production report. Economists expect the data to show that the industrial production slipped to minus 0.9% from the previous 0.1%. Manufacturing production is expected to move from 0.3% to minus 0.5%.
These numbers wll come a week after the Bank of England decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the first time this year. If the data come short of expectations, there is a possibility that the bank will deliver another cut in the next meeting.
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The GBP/USD pair will also react to US economic numbers like the producer price index, retail sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production. Most importantly, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve will deliver his first statement since his press conference following the Fed’s interest rate decision.
Powell will comment on what to expect from th Federal Reserve now that the US has reached a temporary truce with China on trade.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has pulled back after peaking at 1.3435 in April. This price was notable since it was the higher side of the cup and handle pattern, a popular continuation sign in the market.
Further, the pair has formed a bullish flag pattern, comprising of a vertical line and a rectangle-like formation. It also remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
Therefore, the GBP/USD pair will likely have a bullish breakout as bulls target the upper side of the cup at 1.3432. The alternative scenario is where it first drops to the lower side of the channel before resuming its uptrend.
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