EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: In a bearish shift.
- Today's Euro/Dollar Support Levels: 1.1050 – 1.0975 – 1.0880.
- Today's Euro/Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1170 – 1.1270 -1.1400.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy the EUR/USD from the support level of 1.0970, target 1.1150, and stop 1.0880.
- Sell the EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1220, target 1.1000, and stop 1.1330.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Ahead of the important US inflation figures announcement today, the EUR/USD currency pair is facing selling pressures that pushed it towards the 1.1065 support level, the lowest for the pair in a month, before stabilizing around the 1.1086 level at the start of trading today, Tuesday. Across licensed trading company platforms, selling pressure on EUR/USD increased amidst easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Recently, the United States and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days following talks in Geneva, representing a significant de-escalation in the trade war that erupted last month.
Under the US/China agreement, US tariffs on Chinese goods will decrease from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will decrease from 125% to 10%. In other geopolitical developments, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced his readiness to meet Russian President Putin in Turkey next Thursday, while the fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan continued.
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Overall, according to Forex market trading, this news revived risk appetite, but this time it favoured the US dollar over the Euro, as traders prepared to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. Analysts anticipate that Federal Reserve officials will adjust their interest rate forecasts in light of receding inflation risks following the easing of trade tensions.
Trading Tips:
Be cautious. Increasing market optimism about resolving the global trade dispute will increase the US dollar's gains and put the Euro under stronger downward pressure.
Regarding the monetary policy of global central banks, money markets now price the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate at 1.75% by the end of the year – returning to levels last seen in mid-April, before the ECB hinted at a possible interest rate cut to counter the potential economic repercussions of US tariffs. As of April 25, 2025, financial markets were expecting an interest rate below 1.55%, rising to 1.67% by late Friday.
Expected EUR/USD Trading Scenarios:
The most prominent bearish scenario for EUR/USD in Forex market trading is that bear control over the Euro/Dollar direction will strengthen by moving towards and below the psychological support level of 1.1000. Adding to the strength of the downward shift is the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving strongly below the midline, with room and time to move towards stronger bearish levels before reaching the oversold zone. Following a similar path, but lagging, the MACD indicator lines are closer to the midline, increasing the chances of the current bearish shift for the EUR/USD pair.
According to the performance on the daily chart, the move of EUR/USD towards the 1.10 support will support a move towards the next stronger support levels of 1.0945 and 1.0880, respectively.
The expected bullish scenario for EUR/USD will not have an opportunity without the bulls returning the currency pair towards the resistance levels of 1.1285 and 1.1370 again; otherwise, the bearish shift for EUR/USD will remain stronger. The recent selling of EUR/USD will be influenced today by the announcement of the German ZEW Sentiment Index reading at 12:00 PM Egypt time, amidst expectations of a strong improvement in the index readings. Later the same day, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading will be announced at 3:30 PM Egypt time, keeping in mind that the CPI results will affect market expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.
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