Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3520.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3300.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3520.
The GBP/USD pair surged and hit a crucial resistance level as investors remain concerned about the ongoing trade war. It rose to a high of 1.3420, the upper side of the cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. It has jumped by over 10% from its lowest level this year.
US Consumer Confidence Data Ahead
The GBP/USD pair has continued soaring this year as traders waited for key macro data that may impact the next actions by the Federal Reserve.
The Conference Board will publish the closely-watched consumer confidence data later today. Economists expect the numbers to reveal that confidence fell from 92.9 in March to 87.4. That will be a big drop from the year-to-date high of 112.5.
If analysts are correct, it means that confidence has dropped by 25.1 points. Analysts worry that a 20+ drop in confidence often leads to a recession as consumers scale back their consumption.
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Confidence has dropped during the Trump economy because of his tariffs on all imported goods. He has placed a baseline 10% tariff on all goods and a 145% levy on most Chinese goods. Trump also implemented a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, steel, and aluminium.
The GBP/USD pair also jumped ahead of the upcoming US house price index (HPI) data, which will provide more data on the state of the economy.
After these numbers, the US will publish the closely-watched personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data. This is an important data because it is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge since it includes prices of rural and urban areas.
The US will release the JOLTs job vacancies data on Tuesday, while ADP will release the latest private payrolls data on Wednesday. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the official nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart reveals that the GBP/USD pair has jumped from a low of 1.2100 in January to 1.3420. Its current level is notable because it was the highest swing in September 2024. It was also the upper side of the cup and handle pattern, a popular continuation sign.
This cup has a depth of about 10%. As such, measuring the same distance from the upper side brings the next target at 1.4770. This view will become validated if it rises above the cup’s upper side. The next key point to watch will be at 1.3520.
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