Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-price at 1.1500.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1300.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1500.
The EUR/USD exchange rate remained in a tight range on Tuesday as investors waited for important economic data from the United States and Europe. It was trading at 1.1400, down from this month’s high of 1.1575.
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Key economic data ahead
The EUR/USD pair will react to several important economic data from Europe and the United States scheduled for Tuesday and later this week.
Eurostat, the main statistical agency for the European Union, will publish the latest consumer and business confidence data. Economists expect these numbers to reveal that the bloc’s consumer confidence fell from minus 14.5 in March to minus 16.7 in April.
Business confidence is also expected to remain under pressure because of Donald Trump’s tariffs that are impacting the bloc. The most notable of these tariffs have been in the automobile sector, which employs millions of people in the region.
The other top European data will come from Spain, where officials will release the latest consumer inflation and GDP data. While these numbers are important their impact on the European Central Bank (ECB) will be limited.
The EUR/USD pair will react to the upcoming US consumer confidence report by the Conference Board. Economists expect the data to show that confidence tumbled from 92.9 in March to 87.9 in April as concerns about tariffs rose.
A big drop in consumer confidence leads to low spending, which, in turn, affects spending. Since consumer spending is a major part of the US economy, weak spending can lead to a recession over time.
The US will release the latest house price index and JOLTs jobs numbers. The other top numbers to watch this week will be the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) on Friday, personal consumer expenditure (PCE) data on Wednesday, and GDP on Thursday.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate has held steady in the past few days. It was trading at 1.1400 on Monday, up from the key support at 1.1212, the upper side of the cup and handle pattern.
The pair has moved above the 50-day moving average. It has also formed a bullish flag pattern, which is characterized by a long vertical line and a rectangle formation. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the year-to-date high of 1.1574.
The alternative scenario is where it does a break-and-retest pattern by moving to 1.1212, and then resuming the uptrend. A break below the support at 1.1212 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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