- The BTC/USD pair continues to hang around the $20,000 level, essentially doing nothing.
- The market is trying to build some type of base, or just hover around the $20,000 level in order to make the next move.
- The market will ultimately find a significant move to the upside or a continuation of the downturn.
- It’s more likely that we will see more of a downtrend, as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy.
With a tightening monetary policy, it’s very difficult for institutions to put a lot of money out on the risk spectrum like buying Bitcoin would be, and therefore the big move just is not going to happen to the upside. If we break it down below the $18,000 level, it’s likely that Bitcoin will go to the $16,000 level, perhaps even the $12,000 level. In fact, if the market were to reach down to the $12,000 level, it’s likely that we would see a bit of accumulation there, and I will start to dip my toe in the water at that point.
Long-Term Forecast
The $12,000 level could be interesting as it was previous resistance, and now it should continue to suggest that we would have quite a bit of support in that region. That being said, I think we will probably drop down to that area and then go sideways for ages. This is what we have had for multiple downtrends, and I think that we would see more of the same. Given enough time, it’s likely that we will see an opportunity to pick up and accumulate Bitcoin, and hopefully, be holding on to a large amount of Bitcoin for the next bullish run. I don’t have any interest in trying to get too cute with this, and I think that given enough time this becomes a great investment. After all, Bitcoin determines where the rest of crypto goes, and I think we have a situation where longer-term investors are looking at this as a potential opportunity, but they don’t necessarily want to jump into the market with both feet, but ultimately this is a situation where we have to scale in if you are a longer-term trader. If you are shorter-term trader, then you are looking for opportunities to short this market.
