Last Wednesday’s BTC/USD signal was not triggered as there was no suitable price action at any of the key levels which were reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $47,715, $46,595, or $43,836.
Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $49,835 or $51,364.
Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Wednesday that we were seeing Bitcoin unable to hold up above $50k and falling in an orderly way with clear lower lows and lower highs. I thought that the day’s pivotal point was likely to be the support level I had identified at $46,595, with a chance to break and fall quickly to as low as $44,000.
I was very correct about the support level at $46,595 which held strongly and produced a small but profitable trade, although this did not set up until the next day so was not a valid signal. I was also right about Bitcoin struggling at get above $50k as we have just seen the price consolidate below that level.
We can say that Bitcoin is slowly turning more bearish as it cannot get above $50k but it is also firmly supported at $46,595 and is currently being supported above that at $47,715. We may well see more bullish bounces from these levels, but the upside is likely to be limited. It feels as if the most scope for anything except a very short-term trade will be a short trade from resistance near $50k.
If the price breaks below $46,595 it will be likely to fall quite quickly to $43,836.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the USD or Bitcoin.