Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level identified at $18,429 was first reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $17,900, $17,537, $17,078, or $16,173.
Put the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $18,611, $18,930, $19,429, $19,864 or $20,000.
Put the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that after the bearish price movement, the price seemed to be finding support at $17,901. I thought that if this level held up, we could start to see the recent fall as just a moderate retracement in the long-term bullish trend.
The price has held up from that support level, yet I see that despite nothing unusual in the bearish retracement existing to necessarily invalidate the long-term bullish trend, the technical picture seems to be becoming more bearish still as we can now draw a bearish price channel, shown in the chart below, which while a little ambiguous, still looks dominant and bearish.
I continue to maintain that we are probably going to see mostly downwards movement over the rest of 2020, and that the price is not likely to reach $20,000 any time soon.
Due to the bearish price channel I am prepared to take a short trade today from a really firm bearish reversal at any identified resistance level, especially $18,612 or $18,930. However, if there is another strong bullish bounce at $17,900, I will also be ready to take a long trade there as it could be a strong supportive double bottom.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time.