BTC/USD: Support at $11,557 looks pivotal today
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at $11,924.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,557 or $10,696.
- Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,804, $11,959, or $12,105.
- Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday I thought the resistance level at $11,924 was going to be the day’s pivotal point and I would be very happy to take a bullish bias up to the next resistance level above that if we got two consecutive hourly closes above $11,924.
This was a partially good call as the level did rise significantly once it broke above $11,924, however the price did not reach the next resistance level before falling back below $11,924 so it did not truly work out.
We have seen a meaningful bearish retracement, but the outlook remains basically bullish as the bullish price channel is still quite symmetrical and is containing the price.
The bullish price channel suggests that the support level at $11,557 will be a great place at which to seek a long trade if we get a bullish bounce there later.
I expect Bitcoin will start trending upwards again quite soon, if not today or even this week. The outlook will become more bearish if the price gets established below $11,557.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast at 1:15pm London time.