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USD/BRL: Short Term Risks Increasing for Brazilian Real

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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The Brazilian Real has seen emerging short term pressure as global sentiment has taken a turn for the worse and the US Dollar attracts buyers.

Resistance levels have become vulnerable as the USD/BRL has found a wave of buyers in the short term. The Brazilian Real was able to gain against the US Dollar earlier this week and into yesterday, but as equity indices in the US began to turn negative, sentiment in forex saw a massive amount of buying develop as the US Dollar started to attract risk-averse investors.

After hitting important support near the 5.1300 level only two days ago, the Brazilian Real has seen a decrease in its value and is now bumping along important pricing within the USD/BRL near the 5.3500 juncture. After touching values in the middle of June near the 5.3800 levels the USD/BRL began to selloff and the Brazilian Real added value. However, buying of the US Dollar late yesterday and early today highlight resistance remains vulnerable and weaker values for the Brazilian Real present potential value targets because marks of 5.4000 were hit in early June.

Current risk appetite appears to be fragile entering today’s trading. Steep losses on American equity indices yesterday may have some speculators wondering if the worst has already been seen this week regarding negative trading and if another reversal of fortune will soon get underway. The Brazilian Real has shown the ability to muster value and selling of the USD/BRL has been prevalent the past two weeks, and its trading has certainly provided speculators with ample room to pursue long and short positions the past month. Opportunities to trade the USD/BRL are likely to continue to produce plenty of tests regarding value ranges in the coming weeks.

However, traders who are looking for positions today may be tempted to be buyers of the USD/BRL in the short term. If a trader can go long the USD/BRL within its current price levels between 5.3200 and 5.3400 they may be tempted to look for additional weakness from the Brazilian Real and pursue resistance targets near the 5.3600 junctures.

Support around the 5.2800 may be an inflection point creating reversals upward, but if this juncture is broken lower support near 5.2400 could be tested and then remain resilient. Present market conditions make the USD/BRL forex pair a tempting buying opportunity.

Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 5.3600

Current Support: 5.2800

High Target: 5.3900

Low Target: 5.2200

USD/BRL

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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