Last Monday's piece ended with three predictions that have been relevant to the price action that has taken place since then:
1. No overall directional bias without a sustained break above 1.6250 (bullish) or below 1.5885 (bearish).
2. Touch trades possible during London sessions: long at 1.5900, short at 1.6250.
3. A sustained break of 1.5885 to the downside should send price down to 1.5750 fairly quickly.
To see how things worked out since then, let's see the 1 hour chart below:
The predictions could be said to have worked out fairly well. The price did briefly fall below 1.5885, but there was no sustained break, and the price then ranged right back up to around the level it was at upon publication. A long touch trade at 1.5900 was triggered during the London session on 12th November, falling quickly to a drawdown of 47 pips, before rising to a maximum profit of 165 pips to date. The level was touched just after major news, so it was really a question of using a wide stop loss of at least 50 pips to profit from this recommendation.
Looking to the future, let's take a look at the daily chart:
Since Monday the price fell sharply, breaking below the identified strong support level at 1.5890 by approximately 40 pips, before rising fairly strongly and forming a bearish reversal bar yesterday. We can therefore lower the significant support level to the low that has been formed this week at 1.5850, but the price action since Monday does not change the outlook established in the last forecast by very much.
Therefore it seems logical to stick with mostly the same conclusions as before, as follows
1. A break today of yesterday's high should see the price continue to rise close to 1.6115. If we fail to break yesterday's high today, that will be a mildly bearish sign.
2. No overall directional bias, until there is a sustained break above 1.6250 (bullish) or below 1.5850 (bearish).
3. A sustained break of 1.5850 to the downside should send price down to 1.5750 fairly quickly.
4. A sustained break of 1.6250 to the upside will have unpredictable consequences until 1.6377 is surpassed, which would be an extremely bullish sign.
5. A sustained break of 1.6115 would be a mildly bullish sign.