The EUR/USD pair rose during the session on Tuesday, breaking the top of the hammer that had formed on Monday. This of course is a bullish sign, but we did not break above the 1.36 handle, like I had wanted to see. Until we get a daily close above that level, I am not necessarily confident about going long, but I have to admit that this market is looking more and more bullish.
Perhaps it is the market not believing that the Federal Reserve will be able to justify tapering off of quantitative easing. Remember, that is what the market seems to be worried about the most, and the Euro is essentially the "anti-dollar", and because of that, as money flees the United States it almost always finds a home in Europe given enough time.
Jobs numbers, and the Federal Reserve.
Jobs numbers of course will be front and center next week, and with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday this week, is very possible that we will have fairly quiet markets going forward. Because of this, I feel that this market will more than likely be held hostage by the Federal Reserve and the jobs numbers out of America, but at the end of the day if I see a daily close above the 1.36 handle, it won't matter to me as to why it decided to go higher, just that it did. At that point time, I be more than willing to start buying again. I think the market would more than likely head to the 1.38 handle in the short term.
Above the 1.38 handle, I think the market has the 1.40 without too many issues as well. Quite frankly, the 1.38 handle isn't a big deal at all, it's just the most recent high. That could cause a little bit of resistance going forward, but at the end of the day I don't see why the market will struggle getting above it. As far as selling is concerned, we need to close well below the 1.35 handle in order for me to consider doing so, or hear something about the Federal Reserve tapering.
