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The Nasdaq 100 Index closed at a new all-time high yesterday. The index gained approximately 0.87% to close near 31,076, led by large technology and AI-related shares. This is a confirmed closing breakout, rather than just an intraday move above resistance, and will attract the attention of trend traders. However, unusually high Treasury yields remain a potential headwind to further gains.
The broader US stock market also advanced. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.05% to a record close of 27,477.31, while the S&P 500 Index rose about 0.7% and finished within 0.3% of its own record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained approximately 0.2%. Nvidia rose more than 2% to a record close, illustrating the continuing strength of the AI trade.
Asian equities are following Wall Street higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained approximately 0.7% during today’s Asian session, while MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan rose around 0.2%. Lower oil prices are helping sentiment, although the rally is taking place alongside—not because of—a sustained decline in bond yields.
EUR/USD has rebounded somewhat after yesterday’s breakdown to a long-term low well below 1.1200. The pair reached approximately 1.1160, its lowest price since May 2025, before recovering towards 1.1215. Political uncertainty in Spain (which will hold a general election in a few weeks) and concern over French public finances continue to weigh on the Euro. The bearish long-term trend remains intact, and bullish retracements are only to be expected in this currency pair.
The US Dollar remains firm despite reduced Fed-hike expectations. The Dollar Index is near 102.2, supported partly by Euro weakness and high US yields. Following Friday’s weak employment report, markets were pricing roughly a 78% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in October. The Dollar’s strength therefore should not be attributed solely to expectations of another imminent hike and is therefore significant.
US Treasury yields have reached fresh long-term highs. The 10-year yield briefly touched 5.3493% yesterday, its highest level since 2002, before easing towards 5.31%. The 30-year yield also reached a fresh multi-decade high near 5.70%. Inflation and government debt concerns remain important drivers, even as weaker employment data reduce the immediate pressure for further Fed tightening. Trend traders will be long of 10-year and 2-year US treasury yield futures, which are available as very affordable micro products on the CME.
Bitcoin and Ethereum remain below their breakout levels. Bitcoin is trading around $85,500–$85,700, while Ethereum is near $2,700. Neither has yet confirmed a fresh breakout above the resistance levels highlighted yesterday—$87,293 for Bitcoin and $2,800 for Ethereum. The bullish setups remain worth watching, but a stock market record high, even in tech, does not automatically confirm a cryptocurrency breakout.
Crude Oil has declined towards important support. WTI settled near $89.43 yesterday, while Brent fell approximately 1.9% to $100.32. Recovering Middle East exports and the G7’s planned strategic-stockpile release have eased immediate supply concerns. Using the spot WTI level highlighted yesterday, $87.68 remains the nearby support to watch, although equivalent futures levels will differ by contract. A break below that level would be a significant bearish technical development.