Bitcoin has fallen to a new 18-month low price to trade below the round number at $60,000 which is a bearish sign for Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin is in focus as the world's largest cryptocurrency continues its long-term downwards trend which has been providing traders on the short side with profits for many months. When you see a trend like this, it is important to either follow it, or to trade against it if you must with extreme caution and minimal risk. It is easy to look at historic Bitcoin price charts and see that in the past few years, as a highly speculative asset, and so it is prone to respect long-term trends and technical levels. For these reasons, a short trade here from a rejection of $61,850 would be attractive to me.
Crude Oil remains in focus as the talks between the USA and Iran were postponed due to recent exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz between the USA and Iran. However, the talks have been announced to be back on, so the price continues to fall weakly and is now back in its area of comfort where it consolidated before the war. It could be that if a final US/Iran peace deal is reached, that would be a catalyst for even lower prices, but I am not sure it has much further to fall in the near term.
Precious metals such as Silver and Gold are showing weak recoveries after both reached new 18-month low prices. Silver is down by more than 50% from its peak made earlier this year, with both metals getting hammered by the tighter US monetary conditions. Trend traders prepared to short commodities will also be interested to be short here. I do not like to go short of commodities or equity indices.
Equities are mixed, with confusion mainly driven by different market sentiment within the AI ecosystem. AI infrastructure stocks are doing well, non-infrastructure is not.
In the Forex market, the US Dollar has been selling off gently after making a new 13-month high last Wednesday. The Dollar is likely to retain some strength from a more hawkish Fed outlook since its policy meeting two weeks ago. The EUR/USD pair is in focus as trend traders will be looking to be short here after it made a technically significant bearish breakdown below $1.1400 to a new 14-month low last week. Trend traders will already be long of the USD/JPY currency pair after its strong bullish breakout to a 1-year+ high price. These two pairs have historically been the best to trade the US Dollar against, with GBP/USD and AUD/USD showing less long-term weakness.
There are no high-impact economic data releases due today, so it might be a slow day, as it is also a Monday.
It is a public holiday today in Italy.