Forex Today: Stocks Rise on US Shutdown / Tariff Dividend Hopes, Chinese Rare Earths

Good news for risk-on sentiment, stocks, and commodities as the new week gets underway is lifting these markets.

1. In the USA, Senate Majority Leader Thune has said that an agreement to end the longest-ever government shutdown is almost done, as 10 Senate Democrats join him in being prepared to offer sufficient compromise to get a deal done. The government shutdown had begun to seriously impact the wider public, with flight delays yesterday in parts of the country as long as 4 hours. This is a factor helping to boost market sentiment.
2. President Trump is publicly floating paying a "tariff dividend" of $2,000 per person, excluding "high earners", presumably like the coronavirus-era stimulus checks. This may also be contributing to a more positive mood in the markets.
3. China has announced the suspension of its ban on exporting gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the USA for the next year. This is good news for American technology companies, and this is filtering through to help lift the broader stock market.
4. The three items above are generating a bullish, risk-on mood in the market, with all risky assets rising so far since markets opened this week. The bullish recovery, it is worth noting, actually began on Friday in the US stock market, but it looks wider now:
   1. The NASDAQ 100 Index is up by 1.04%.
   2. The S&P 500 Index is up by 0.59%.
   3. The Nikkei 225 Index is up by 1.26%.
   4. Gold and Silver are looking bullish, with Gold up by 1.79% trading well above $4,000 and Silver up by 2.40%, not far from $50.
   5. Bitcoin is up by 1.49% to trade above $106k, a notable recovery over the weekend after briefly trading below the huge round number at $100k late last week.
   6. WTI Crude Oil is up by 0.74%, trading above $60 per barrel.
5. In the Forex market, the strongest major currency is the Australian Dollar, while the weakest is the Swiss Franc (since today's Tokyo open). This is typical of a risk-on environment. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading above ¥154 and looking bullish on the improved risk sentiment, which typically depresses the Yen. If we get a daily close above ¥154.25 at the end of today, traders should consider entering a long trade here.

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