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Forex Today: Fed Almost Unanimously Expected to Hold Rates Steady

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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The US Federal Reserve will be holding a policy meeting today, where it is very widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

  1. The major event in the global Forex calendar takes place today: a policy meeting at the US Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected by almost everyone to leave rates unchanged, with no consensus on a rate cut before the July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In the very unlikely event that the Fed cuts rates, we will see a sharp fall by the USD and a sharp rise in major US stock market indices.
  2. The precious metal Gold rose strongly yesterday to close in New York at a record high. This will likely attract trend trader entries long, but bulls should be aware that the price never made a new absolute record high price, so this breakout is at least a bit doubtful.
  3. China cut its interest rate to 1.4% and added monetary stimulus to boost its economy ahead of trade talks with the USA. The offshore Chinese Yuan weakened on the news, but not by very much.
  4. India struck some sites in Pakistan that it claims were linked to a recent terrorist attack in India. The USD/INR currency pair lost some ground on the news, but by nothing special.
  5. Bitcoin invalidated the former key resistance level at $95,206, which is a bullish sign. We may now see a decisive bullish breakout, but not before the price closes in New York above $110,000.
  6. The Forex market has seen the US Dollar decline a little today. Since today's Asian session open, the New Zealand has been the strongest major currency and the Japanese Yen the weakest one. The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a long-term bullish trend and most analysts will see it that way as long as the price holds up above the key support level at $1.1241.
  7. There will be a release today of New Zealand Unemployment Rate data.
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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