Forex Daily Forecast, Analysis and Prediction

The price of gold at $4000 per ounce is the next target for gold bulls amid the continued strong positive momentum in the market. According to platforms of gold trading companies, momentary gold prices rose to the resistance level of $3897 per ounce, the highest in the history of the yellow metal market. The absence of US job numbers at the end of last week provided enough momentum for gold bulls to hold onto their gains. The US government shutdown joined the factors driving gains in the gold market, leading traders to ignore the fact that all technical indicators had reached sharp overbought levels.

When will the AI bubble burst, and what consequences will it have? Find out how to find growth stocks against a challenging environment of high interest rates, low growth rates, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and a dash of central bank worries.

The U.S. dollar has been a bit choppy against the Mexican peso during the trading session on Friday as we continue to just grind sideways overall. This is a market that, course, is paying attention to a lot of different things at the moment, not the least of which would be the U.S. government shutdown. However, really, when you look at the longer term picture, you see that the US dollar had skyrocketed back in the middle of April of 2024, extending from the 16.3 level all the way to the 21.3 level before pulling back. With that being the case, we find ourselves sitting just above the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement level. And therefore, some technical traders will be watching this. The 18.20 Mexican pesos level for me is important because if we break down below there, typically I start aiming for a complete turnaround of the Fibonacci level, meaning we could drop all the way back down to the bottom. Short-term rallies will face some problems with 18.5 pesos and the 50-day EMA at the 18.57 level, which is dropping.

On Friday the Nvidia stock initially rallied a bit during the early hours here on Friday but then turned around to show signs of hesitation as traders continue to see a lot of questions asked about the extension and expansion of the stock market. The non-farm payroll announcement was not released on Friday, so we didn't really have a lot to drive sentiment. That being said, Nvidia has filled a gap from the Thursday open, so one would assume that sooner or later the buyers return, based on the idea of “market memory”. I'm paying special attention to $185 because it was significant resistance previously, and a little bit of market memory comes into play in that general vicinity.

The Euro continues to try to rally against the US dollar, but at this point in time, it's likely that the market continues to see selling pressure just above. And quite frankly, this has been a very lackluster week for the Euro. We are approaching an area that I think we have to make a decision with the uptrend line that’s coming into the picture. The 50-day EMA sitting just below the current area offers a bit of support as well. So, I'm paying close attention to this. The euro is going to have to basically put up or shut up pretty soon with threats against the U S dollar. One thing is for sure that since we have seen the FOMC press conference or the statement, you know, we just, we've seen the market do nothing but fall since then.

The British Pound has rallied quite nicely against the Japanese Yen during trading on Friday as the 198 Yen level has offered a significant amount of support. The 50-day EMA is offering a little bit of resistance at the 198.9 Yen level, but I do think it will get sliced through again given enough time. The 200 Yen level is an area that we had flirted with for a couple of weeks before pulling back. And when you look at the longer term chart, this is an area that's been very difficult multiple times going back multiple years. I do think it's a bit of a magnet for price though. And if we get more risk appetite out there that typically will favor this pair going higher regardless. If we break down below the lows of the Thursday candlestick, which is basically 197.5 yen, then it opens up a drop to the 200 day EMA, which is down at 196 yen. This would accompany a lot of concerns about the environment of financial markets, that type of thing.

The Euro initially did rally against the Swiss franc during the trading session here on Friday but gave up gains above the 50 day EMA yet again for the fifth day in a row. That being said, it's also worth noting that the 50 day EMA has offered a significant amount of resistance near the 0.9350 level. And it looks like we are trying to grind lower, have formed four shooting star candlesticks in a row, is a pretty clear indication that there is a lot of selling pressure above. It's worth noting that the US dollar has also been stingy against the euro at the same time, so this might be a euro-centric problem. Risk appetite is obviously influential on this pair.

Bitcoin (BTC) has shattered its previous all-time high, surging to a record $125,725 on Sunday amid renewed institutional inflows and seasonal tailwinds.

The US dollar rallied against the Japanese yen during the early hours on Friday, but we have seen a certain amount of resistance in this market, as this pair continues to be very noisy. That doesn’t surprise me, because it has been very choppy for months, even though we at one point got a bit of a “false break out.” The candlestick for the Friday session looks like it is going to close positive, but I also recognize that the 200 Day EMA has offered significant resistance, and therefore it suggests that perhaps the market isn’t quite ready to take off to the upside, and we may be stuck in the same consolidation for a while.

Silver rallies again during the trading session on Friday, as we have now broken above the crucial $48 level. Now that we have cleared the psychological level, it does open up the possibility of a move to the $50 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and short-term pullbacks will more likely than not end up being a buying opportunity.

The NASDAQ 100 ended up being very sideways during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of ambivalence in this market due to the lack of a Non-Farm Payroll announcement, as the US government shut down. With that being said, there is a serious lack of momentum at the moment, so I think we have a situation where we may just drift back and forth. I would make a certain amount of sense, because we could work off some of the excess froth, which of course is common for a significant uptrend.

The British pound is relatively quiet during the trading session on Friday against the Swiss franc, as we sit on top of the major support level in the form of the 1.07 CHF level. This is a market that’s been in a significant downtrend for a while, so it does make a certain amount of sense that eventually we have to take a bit of a breather from the selling pressure.

Bitcoin initially fell on Friday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. We are hanging on to the $120,000 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. This is an area that has been important multiple times in the past, and it’s likely that we will continue to see this market offer a lot of bullish pressure on dips, extending all the way down to the $117,000 level, an area that was short term resistance.

The Nikkei 225 produced a strong gap higher earlier today when the Japanese stock market began its trading, this after a weekend announcement in Japan by the Liberal Democratic Party that Sanae Takaichi has been nominated to lead the government.

The GBP/USD exchange rate remained unchanged on Monday morning as investors predicted that the Federal Reserve would deliver more rate cuts in the next meeting. It was trading at 1.3500, down from the year-to-date high of 1.3790.