Christopher Lewis

The US dollar initially did try to rally a bit during the trading session here on Tuesday but then gave back gains to show signs of exhaustion. I think ultimately this is a pair that continues to go lower as we will go looking for more substantial support, but I think there's enough support to keep this market afloat. The 1.39 level is support, and a bounce from there makes sense as I think we are going to continue to just trade between 1.39 on the bottom and 1.40 on the top. If we can take out the 1.40 level to the upside, I think at that point in time the US dollar goes looking to the 1.4240 level. The 200-day EMA sits at the 1.3869 level and rallying. The 50 day EMA rallying from here could kick off a uh golden cross, which of course is a longer term buy signal. Quite frankly, the Canadians have shed jobs while the United States is still adding them, at least we think. And of course, the Canadian economy is suffering at the hands of a lot of concerns, not the least of which is a trade war with the Americans.

The gold market has shown itself to be rather noisy, but bullish during the trading session here on Tuesday. We pierced the crucial $4,000 level, an area that I think, of course, a lot of people will be watching very closely as there's a lot of headlines around it. The question is, can we continue to go to the upside?

The euro has plunged a bit during the early hours here on Tuesday as the US dollar continues to strengthen. Quite frankly, the US dollar just won't roll over and die like everybody said it was going to do. And now we find ourselves at the uptrend line. The uptrend line, of course, has been in effect since the middle of April, so it matter at this point, and we are below the 50-day EMA. Now keep in mind that during the Monday session, we made this exact same move only to bounce and form a hammer. If we break down below this uptrend line, then I think we've got a shot at running to the 1.16 level. The 1.16 level being broken to the downside opens up quite a bit of selling pressure, perhaps down to the 1.14 area where I would anticipate seeing the 200 day EMA come in and offer some noise. All things being equal.

The British pound fell significantly during the early hours here on Tuesday, but it looks like the 1.34 level is going to continue to offer a bit of support and as a result I think we've got a situation where we just go sideways Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time probably has to make a bigger decision But we are basically at fair value currently because we have been between 1.32 and 1.36 and 1.34 of course is right in the middle.

The Bitcoin market was rather ugly during the trading session on Tuesday as the $125,000 level has offered massive resistance. Ultimately, this is a market that I think, given enough time, we probably find buyers looking for some type of value. And it's possible that we could go looking to the $120,000 level. The $120,000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that probably has a bit of market memory. If we break down below there, then the $117,500 level could come into the picture to offer support as well.

The US dollar rose against the Mexican peso during trading on Tuesday, but what could be thought of as somewhat quiet and sideways trading. This does make a certain amount of sense, as there are a lot of questions about the US economy, and of course we have the US government shut down. Remember, Mexico is highly levered to the United States, as it is the world’s largest exporter to the world’s largest economy. While most people think about China in that prism, the reality is that Mexico is a much bigger exporter, at least as far as the Americans are concerned.

The euro rose again during the trading session on Tuesday against the Japanese yen, as traders continue to price in the idea of a potentially loose monetary policy coming out of Japan. At this point, traders are blaming it on the election, but I have no idea why they thought Japan was ever going to have any other type of monetary policy. Japan has been loose for over 20 years now, and quite frankly has a demographics bomb ready to go off that will make it so that they cannot finance their debt with any type of interest at all. Japan is by far the most heavily indebted industrial country in the top tier of economies, and therefore in order to continue to have the economy function, low interest rates are a necessity, not a “wish.”

Ethereum has had a rough Tuesday session, dropping rather precipitously from right around the $4750 level. With that being the case, the market is worth paying close attention to, because it can be used as a bit of a risk barometer, especially when it comes to other cryptocurrency markets. While the Ethereum market is considered to be secondary to the Bitcoin market, and therefore I think you need to be cautious because if Bitcoin continues to struggle, Ethereum is going to get crushed.

The crude oil market has fallen during the early hours on the Tuesday session, only to turn around and show signs of life. It’s worth noting that we are sitting just below the $62 level, which is an area that’s been important multiple times. In fact, the $62 level is the top of an overall support range that drops down to the $60 level. We did touch that $60 level, but now it looks like we are trying to reiterate that important. If we can break out to the upside, that would be an even more bullish sign, but I think over the next couple of sessions, we may see some problems.

The US dollar has gapped higher against the Japanese yen to kick off the trading session here on Monday after the surprise results of the Japanese national election. That being said, I don't put a lot of faith into these types of moves. Historically speaking, at least I should say that I don't chase them.

The US dollar has initially fallen against the Canadian dollar to kick off the week on Monday but turned around to show signs of life again with that being said I think you've got a situation where traders are going to continue to be very uh cautious but I also think that short-term pullbacks probably offer buying opportunities that people are willing to get involved at the 1.39 level below should end up being support, just as the 1.40 level above should offer resistance. I think at this point, we're trying to determine whether or not we can actually take out the 1.40 level. Breaking above there opens up a move all the way to 1.4250, and I think that eventually happens. Quite frankly, the economic data in Canada is horrible. They actually lost jobs in August, and at this point, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates, let's be honest here.